It's Better to Be Confident Than Correct
For Pundits, It's Better to Be Confident Than Correct enlarge Jadrian Wooten, left, and Ben Smith analyzed a billion tweets and found the popularity of a pundit hinges more on whether he or she is confident than right. (Credit: Photo courtesy of Washington State University) It would be nice to think the pundits we see yelling on TV and squawking on Twitter are right all the time. It turns out they're wrong more often than they are right. Now two Washington State University economics students have demonstrated that it simply doesn't pay as much for a pundit to be accurate as it does to be confident. It's one thing to be a good pundit, but another to be popular. "In a perfect world, you want to be accurate and confident," says Jadrian Wooten. "If you had to pick, being confident will get you more followers, get you more demand." Wooten made his discovery with Ben Smith, a fellow doctoral candidate in economics. Smith originally