Interpersonal Conflict is the Strongest Predictor of Community Crime


For the writers of crime drama and police procedurals, this report offers an understanding of what really predicts serious crime in a neighborhood.  It's not the existing crime rate per se, it's the number of interpersonal conflict calls received.  It could be a landlord - tenant dispute, domestic violence, vandalism or any in a range of essentially minor problems - not necessarily crimes - between people in a community.

Based on this new research from Northeastern University and Harvard University, it is people facing stressful conflicts with others who may respond violently leading to an overall increase in a neighborhood crime rate.

Here's the full report:
*  *  *  *  *

Interpersonal conflict is the strongest predictor
of community crime and misconduct

"Private conflicts, for example, domestic violence or friendship
disputes over money or girlfriends, can and do spill over into
public spaces, be it on stoops or street corners, in bars or local parks."

Police Procedural:
A Writer's Guide
to the Police and
How They Work

by Russell Bintliff

Click on image to order
Powell's Books
Neighborhoods with more interpersonal conflict, such as domestic violence and landlord/tenet disputes, see more serious crime according to a new study. Private conflict was a better predictor of neighborhood deterioration than public disorder, such as vandalism, suggesting the important role that individuals play in community safety.

Neighborhoods with more interpersonal conflict, such as domestic violence and landlord/tenet disputes, see more serious crime according to a new study in Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency (JRCD). Private conflict was a better predictor of neighborhood deterioration than public disorder, such as vandalism, suggesting the important role that individuals play in community safety.

"Private conflicts, for example, domestic violence or friendship disputes over money or girlfriends, can and do spill over into public spaces, be it on stoops or street corners, in bars or local parks." reported study authors Daniel O'Brien and Robert J. Sampson of Northeastern University and Harvard University.

Analyzing census reports and geographical data of 911 dispatches and 311 service requests in 121 Boston residential areas from 2011-2012, O'Brien and Sampsom found the following relationships across time:
  • Neighborhood rates of interpersonal conflict in 2011 were associated with increases in
    • social disorder (noise disturbances and public intoxication),
    • private neglect (infestation and uncivil use of private property),
    • crime, and
    • physical and gun violence in 2012.
  • Physical disorder (infestation, graffiti, improper disposal of trash) and social disorder were only slightly predictive of future violence and further disorder.
  • Incidents involving guns in 2011 predicted more homicides in 2012.
  • Homicides in 2011 were unrelated to any measures of violence, crime, and disorder in 2012.
Violence likely to increase in severity
"Private conflict and public violence are likely to increase in severity over time, leading to the more consistent use of guns," commented O'Brien and Sampson. "Notably, this progression has been largely invisible to previous work because its primary antecedents occur behind closed doors, out of view of many measurement techniques."

People facing stressful conflicts with others may respond violently
The researchers speculated that people facing stressful conflicts with others may respond violently to issues within their community, neglect private property, and be less inclined to take a stand against neighborhood decline. Such examples of external disorder may also stress individuals in the community, intensifying conflicts within private lives.

Related stories:


Story Source:  Materials provided by SAGE Publications.  Daniel O’Brien and Robert J. Sampson. Public and private spheres of neighborhood disorder: Assessing pathways to violence using large-scale digital records. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, June 2015.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Workout supplements: An emerging eating disorder in men?

Image
therewontbeanydoves.wordpress.com When developing a fictional character, you may not think about the character using large amounts of over-the-counter dietary supplements.  Especially a man who uses large amounts of workout supplements. While there has been widespread publicity on the dangers of the non-prescribed use of anabolic steroids, not much is said about legal, over-the-counter supplements.  Are there risks?  And if so, what are they?  There are several things the writer should consider. Supplement use is becoming an eating disorder with many men who use them to prepare for and recover from a workout. There is growing evidence of a link between muscle-building supplements and testicular cancer. There is evidence that over-the counter medications and supplements are the most common causes of drug-induced liver failure (a rare event, but still a risk.)  There is even evidence that, “certain popular herbal and dietary supplements can also cause liver damage,"
Read more

How laughter leads to love.

Image
James Cagney rubs a grapefruit half in the face of Mae Clarke  in the classic flick, Public Enemy (1931), written by Kubec Glasmon and John Bright, adaptation for the screen by Harvey Thew.  Funny? Yes.  A rom-com?  Not really.  Great scene, though. Between romance novels and rom-com movies and television, there is a never ending, ever growing market for romance.  So what leads to romance?  Of everything, it is laughter.  Not at, but with.  So here's how it works:  Boy meets girl.  Boy gets the girl to laugh.  (Add a few tasty comedic or dramatic interludes), and viola, girl catches boy (after boy makes a complete horse's ass of himself,) and the happy couple goes giggling into the sunset.   Formulaic?  Very much so.   Greatly entertaining?  Very much so. Until kids, mortgage and divorce. . . but that's a story for later. Here's a report on laughter in romance, with a link to the full study in the attribution. *  *  *  *  * Laught
Read more

On Being Humble: E.B. White was Right in Charlotte's Web

Image
It seems the best authors have a knack for accurately describing the personality traits of their characters.  For example, the character change experienced by Ebenezer Scrooge in Dickens A Christmas Carol is considered by research psychologists to be spot on for how the process of change works. How true to life was Scrooge's change? Is this ability to describe a character strictly from watching others?  Business writer Peter Drucker says in his semi-autobiographical book, Adventures of a Bystander that he and many of the other writers he knows are essentially bystanders, observing what is going on around them. Another example of a writer getting it right is E.B. White's popular children's book, Charlotte's Web.  Research psychologist Peter Samuelson and his team are researching the deeper meaning of humility.  Among their conclusions?  E.B. White displayed insight into humility and its underlying attributes. Here's the story : *  *  *  *  * The Two
Read more

Remember faces but not names? You got it wrong.

Image
Source:   Daily Excelsior So, you think you're good at remembering faces, but terrible with names? New research has revealed we are actually better at remembering names than faces The cringe-worthy experience of not being able to remember an acquaintance's name leads many of us to believe we are terrible with names. However, new research has revealed this intuition is misleading; we are actually better at remembering names than faces. With the Christmas party season fast approaching, there will be plenty of opportunity to re-live the familiar, and excruciatingly-awkward, social situation of not being able to remember an acquaintance's name. This cringe-worthy experience leads many of us to believe we are terrible at remembering names. However, new research has revealed this intuition is misleading; we are actually better at remembering names than faces. The authors of the study, from the University of York, suggest that when we castigate ourselves f
Read more

Biologist's 'Map Of Life' Predicts ET. (So where is he? She? It?)

Image
Source: www.wired.com Incredible, Detailed Map of the Galaxy by Winchell Chung showing the location of the Earth - between two arms of the Milky Way galaxy, and a few of the habitable planets we know of in our proximity. You'll notice that our planet is in relatively uninhabited area of space.  We're out in the boonies, far from potentially inhabited stars making it difficult to find us, and to reach us. You must have noticed the explosion of interest and speculation about alien life, and even alien life that has visited Earth across so many media outlets.  It's like the Pet Rock fad of our decade.  From a writer's viewpoint, this has led to some wonderful speculative science fiction from Jules Verne to The Hitch Hikers' Guide - literally thousands of titles by hundreds of authors - over the past century and a half. Have you wondered what research scientists think, research and write about the possibility of life elsewhere in the Universe?   I m
Read more