Interpersonal Conflict is the Strongest Predictor of Community Crime


For the writers of crime drama and police procedurals, this report offers an understanding of what really predicts serious crime in a neighborhood.  It's not the existing crime rate per se, it's the number of interpersonal conflict calls received.  It could be a landlord - tenant dispute, domestic violence, vandalism or any in a range of essentially minor problems - not necessarily crimes - between people in a community.

Based on this new research from Northeastern University and Harvard University, it is people facing stressful conflicts with others who may respond violently leading to an overall increase in a neighborhood crime rate.

Here's the full report:
*  *  *  *  *

Interpersonal conflict is the strongest predictor
of community crime and misconduct

"Private conflicts, for example, domestic violence or friendship
disputes over money or girlfriends, can and do spill over into
public spaces, be it on stoops or street corners, in bars or local parks."

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Neighborhoods with more interpersonal conflict, such as domestic violence and landlord/tenet disputes, see more serious crime according to a new study. Private conflict was a better predictor of neighborhood deterioration than public disorder, such as vandalism, suggesting the important role that individuals play in community safety.

Neighborhoods with more interpersonal conflict, such as domestic violence and landlord/tenet disputes, see more serious crime according to a new study in Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency (JRCD). Private conflict was a better predictor of neighborhood deterioration than public disorder, such as vandalism, suggesting the important role that individuals play in community safety.

"Private conflicts, for example, domestic violence or friendship disputes over money or girlfriends, can and do spill over into public spaces, be it on stoops or street corners, in bars or local parks." reported study authors Daniel O'Brien and Robert J. Sampson of Northeastern University and Harvard University.

Analyzing census reports and geographical data of 911 dispatches and 311 service requests in 121 Boston residential areas from 2011-2012, O'Brien and Sampsom found the following relationships across time:
  • Neighborhood rates of interpersonal conflict in 2011 were associated with increases in
    • social disorder (noise disturbances and public intoxication),
    • private neglect (infestation and uncivil use of private property),
    • crime, and
    • physical and gun violence in 2012.
  • Physical disorder (infestation, graffiti, improper disposal of trash) and social disorder were only slightly predictive of future violence and further disorder.
  • Incidents involving guns in 2011 predicted more homicides in 2012.
  • Homicides in 2011 were unrelated to any measures of violence, crime, and disorder in 2012.
Violence likely to increase in severity
"Private conflict and public violence are likely to increase in severity over time, leading to the more consistent use of guns," commented O'Brien and Sampson. "Notably, this progression has been largely invisible to previous work because its primary antecedents occur behind closed doors, out of view of many measurement techniques."

People facing stressful conflicts with others may respond violently
The researchers speculated that people facing stressful conflicts with others may respond violently to issues within their community, neglect private property, and be less inclined to take a stand against neighborhood decline. Such examples of external disorder may also stress individuals in the community, intensifying conflicts within private lives.

Related stories:


Story Source:  Materials provided by SAGE Publications.  Daniel O’Brien and Robert J. Sampson. Public and private spheres of neighborhood disorder: Assessing pathways to violence using large-scale digital records. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, June 2015.

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